2017 has surely moved by quickly and now that we head into the final quarter of the year the question that many investors should be asking is....
Well, there's problem a lot of them, right? But the one that comes to mind is "Will this market turn over?" Obviously we've been in an incredible run since last November but with tensions again rising with North Korea and the debt ceiling they could be the 'headlines' that we need to get his market to come down a bit.
Non-Farm Payrolls last Friday were essentially a non-factor. This Tuesday and Wednesday we have some data that could be relevant but really, as always, we want to rely on the story the price charts are telling us.
Overall market sentiment right now is "mixed" considering we rallied after the North Korea rally test last week and then again last night. However, to see this going much higher without a pullback is something to consider.
Let's dive into a few key charts for this week.
We sold off last week and instantly found support at $5780 with a subsequent rally to $6019. This rally was pretty much uncontested by the bears and we believe overhead resistance is near: $6100-$6130/40, regardless, it's close. What we could end up seeing is a blow-off top here met with a strong reversal. $5900-$5860 is support but the long-side trade here on Nasdaq or equities does not look that appetizing.
Last week during the rallies the stock had a tough time 'getting it going', even with the news of the new iPhone. Will it be a great phone? Probably, they never seem to disappoint and what better way to improve your selfie game with a new, updated iPhone camera? We all know price is what matters here and price is telling us to pump the brakes. $166-$168 could be a reversal on this stock. If we break $162 then it could really get ugly, think $150.
The notorious metal, gold. You know, the one that everyone on financial radio and TV tells you to stock up on in case things hit the fan. Because, you know, in times of crisis the thing I really want to own are gold bars and coins. On a serious note, we did rally on the name last week and got close to T2 (target 2 - here is last weeks chart) - $1350-$1360 here looks like resistance, which, is a strange signal considering that Nasdaq looks to be a short soon. So that being said, a pullback before a long entry is a possibility.
WTI Crude Oil:
This market is a favorite for Landshark Futures traders. It moves $1-$2 a week and it tends to have some great action. This week the chart is a bit mixed. $47.50-$48 is a very important large time frame price area. Above that $50-$50.50 should be a breeze to get to but the part is, we need to get above that. Below that a re test of the rally from last week at $46 is viable. So that being said it could be a sideways week on this commodity.
So there we have it. When the markets tend to look 'good' it's always an important reminder to look both ways before crossing the street and at this intersection we're currently at the sign says caution.
Enjoy the trading week and be on the look out for the radio show recordings that will be uploaded here beginning this week.
The month of August has been generally slow with sideways market action and headline news concerning the current Presidential office and key members leaving. The rally that we've had since the November 2016 elections has been of epic proportions and mainly built on the idea that the President was going to have key reform in the way of banking and taxes which has proven to be tough.
As with every first Friday we have NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) data that traders rely heavily on for market sentiments. Usually this can begin to cause portfolio shifts and volatility and with the market at current highs and sideways it is, in my opinion, looking for any reason to sell off a few points.
Let's dive into a few key charts & data below starting with the Friday economic calendar.
The indices have been very sideways. The path of least resistance at this point is lower but it won't be easy. Key support levels lay just below.
S&P E-Mini Futures:
$2450-$2460 looks to be key resistance as we've tested the area three times and found sellers. A break of $2420 is key to get a flush lower and unlike the Nasdaq support is a bit lower and could be a smoother trade.
The weekly chart looks great. Short term resistance is at $1305-$1320 but bids above that should be free to run all the way to $1360-$1380.
The Powershares S&P500 High Beta ETF is a great way to track the momentum sector as a whole. One thing that was particularly interesting is that the trading range this year has been minimal. Since the Novemeber 2016 rally we've effectively traded in about a $3.00-$4.00 range. Could this be a sign for some of the high beta sector? Possibly and enough to mention in this weeks outlook.
The consensus is that markets here seem to be running out of steam. Now whether not it's a pullback to be bought can be discussed when we arrive but for now the upside opportunity on equities is not that appetizing. The positive is that the options and futures markets allow us as active-traders to capitalize on the market whether it goes up or down so bring it on.
Enjoy the trading week and be sure to subscribe on the right.